How to Build a Stores & Doors Sales Model

Developing a solid sales model for your consumer packaged goods brand helps you achieve retail success. Emerging brands do best when they set realistic goals, track performance, and streamline distribution strategies. However, without a reliable framework and CPG sales model, even the best products can struggle to break out and shine.

That's where the stores and doors strategy comes to the rescue. While leading strategy for Napa Valley boutique wineries and emerging CPG brands, I've discovered this approach provides a data-driven way to grow a retail presence. My 9 years of experience in CPG financial planning and analysis help founders like you navigate the twists and turns of retail expansion. 

Understanding the Stores and Doors Sales Model

The stores and doors strategy for CPG sales growth helps you manage and track retail distribution by asking two simple yet essential questions: How many stores sell my products, and how many do they sell? The answers show where your revenue originates and how to scale it effectively.

This bottom-up view of your revenue, every retailer you partner with, and the lines you offer each one helps you scale your brand. Taking this structured approach to your retail expansion model lets you maximize sales in existing retail doors and helps you expand into new ones.

For instance, you're planning a launch with a major retailer with 100 doors. Start the planning process by answering:

• How many doors will carry my product?

• What's my expected revenue per door?

• What trade spend should I budget for?

If you know your products sell well at all locations, secure raw materials, scale your production, and prepare for initial promotions. Also, prepare for trade spend expenses such as potential free fills and slotting to keep your revenue ramp in line with your business' operational capacity.

Setting Up Your Stores and Doors Model: Key Metrics to Track

Building an effective stores and doors strategy starts with knowing what indicators to measure. Without the right metrics, your retail expansion model won't provide the clarity needed for strategic growth. Make these metrics actionable by regularly capturing and analyzing data, including point-of-sale data provided by retailers.

Store Count

First, look at how many stores carry your product to get an overview of your brand's retail presence that serves as a baseline for CPG sales growth. Whether you're launching with a new retailer or expanding your brand's footprint into existing stores, keeping tabs on your total store count helps you measure progress.

Door Count

Every location matters, and while a retailer might represent just one store in your expansion model, those with hundreds of physical locations are your doors. Each one presents unique opportunities to increase your sales by planning localized marketing, evaluating performance by region or location type, and assessing why specific doors underperform.

Same-Store Sales Growth 

Monitor same-store sales growth metrics to see how well your products perform in existing locations over time. Consistent growth in the same stores signals a strong product-market fit and how well your brand resonates with customers. Declines in growth highlight areas where you need to pay more attention to shelf placement and product promotions.

Average Sales Per Store and/or Door

Calculate average sales by dividing total revenue by the number of stores or doors carrying your product. If one retailer or location shows significantly higher averages, consider investing more in marketing, promotions, or inventory. 

Sales Velocity

Sales velocity measures how fast your products move off shelves. This metric shows how much and how often your products sell. High velocity shows strong customer demand for your brand and good product placement. However, lower velocity may signal pricing issues or poor shelf placement.

Step-by-Step: Building Your Own Sales Model

Creating a stores and doors strategy gives your brand a clear sales model roadmap. It helps you track performance, set growth targets, and scale with precision. Use this step-by-step guide to build a retail expansion model that works for your business.

Step 1: Gather Data

Collect store-level data from your current retail partners or distributors. Capture your store count, door count, and sales data. Use POS data from retailers to track performance, and identify high-performing stores and problem areas. 

Step 2: Establish Baselines

Calculate key metrics, such as your average sales per store or door and sales velocity, to establish your baseline. For instance, if 100 doors generate $200,000 in monthly revenue, your average sales per door — your baseline — is $2,000.

Step 3: Set Growth Targets

Set realistic sales goals for each store and door based on your baseline. Use categories such as same-store sales growth, new doors, and revenue per door. Also, plan for external factors such as seasonal demand and retailer promotions that may impact your targets.

Step 4: Forecast for Variation

Retail performance often fluctuates seasonally or regionally, so build these factors into your CPG sales model. Analyzing past sales data or industry trends lets you adjust forecasts for holidays, summer demand, or back-to-school spikes.

Step 5: Track Performance

Set up a system to monitor and track performance against your targets. Use dashboards or sales tracking software to evaluate revenue per door, velocity trends, and same-store sales growth. Tracking these metrics regularly helps you spot trends early and modify your strategy accordingly.

Step 6: Adjust Targets

Stay flexible by adjusting targets based on new information. If specific stores or doors underperform, look for reasons such as poor shelf placement, lack of consumer awareness, or regional preferences. Reallocating resources to higher-performing areas and refining marketing and trade spends can often help you address common issues.

Tips for Using the Model to Align Sales and Operations for Growth

The stores and doors strategy bridges the gap between sales targets and operational readiness on your annual finance and accounting checklists. When used effectively, you can grow your brand sustainably by focusing every aspect of your business in the same direction.

Align Sales and Procurement

Sales targets should directly inform production and procurement schedules. Work backward from sales forecast targets to create a raw materials purchasing schedule. For instance, if you're expanding into 200 new doors with average sales projections of $5,000 each, ensure your suppliers can meet your demands well before your launch date.

Manage Trade Spend

Trade spend requires critical planning, so include projections as a line item in your sales models. Allocate trade budgets where they can deliver the most value. Anticipate the costs of free fills and slotting fees in certain stores, and plan promotions for high-velocity doors to maximize your ROI.

Prepare for Operational Readiness

This strategy shows where to focus production capacity, distribution planning, and staffing. If projected sales exceed your current production limits, identify bottlenecks before they impact your supply chain.

Forecast and Secure Capital

CPG sales growth requires capital, so use equity and debt planning to identify extra funding needed for inventory, marketing, or trade spend. Realistic forecasting using door-level sales projections helps you build a credible business case for investors and lenders.

Tracking Performance and Adjusting the Model Over Time

Evolve your strategy using your brand's performance to better track and adjust your model over time without derailing growth. Regular reviews let you identify trends early, adjust targets to match performance, and respond to changes in the retail environment.

Look at the following to get a better idea of where your business stands:

• Seasonal trends

• Door-level performance

• Revenue per door

• New doors and launches

• Retailer relationships

Next, refine your targets based on trends and incorporate new data into your planning. Make seasonal adjustments as needed, and test each scenario to see how changes may impact your overall goals.

Keep your CPG sales model flexible by:

• Automating tracking: Use sales-tracking tools and accounting services to get real-time data and minimize manual errors.

• Engaging teams: Analyze performance by bringing sales, operations, and finance teams together.

• Setting milestones: Establish checkpoints to measure progress and recalibrate your stores and doors strategy.

• Adapting to change: Refining your model quickly when trends deviate from projections better equips you to maintain target goals.

Building a Strong Sales Model for Sustainable Retail Growth

Whether you're expanding into new retailers, refining your existing footprint, or planning your next big launch, BBG can help you build a tailored, actionable sales model that aligns with your overarching goals. 

Our team of experts combines years of industry expertise with practical tools to help you optimize your brand. Visit our Balanced Business Group website to explore related articles, or contact us today for help developing financial strategies to grow your CPG business.

Author: Maggie Ojeda

With 9 years of experience in finance, specializing in Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A) and cost management, Maggie Ojeda is a trusted expert in delivering actionable financial insights. She spent 4 years at Grupo Peñaflor, one of Argentina’s top wine producers, where she developed a deep understanding of the wine industry’s financial complexities. Currently, as the FP&A Team Lead at BBG, she leads financial strategy for Napa Valley boutique wineries and emerging CPG brands. Her expertise in financial modeling, variance analysis, and cost management enables her clients to make informed, strategic decisions for business growth.